USA oil and gas resurgence expected as global energy demand grows

India takes centre stage in energy economy, to drive demand growth: IEA

Oil market could tip out of balance on rising non-Opec production

"With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world's consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil", the IEA report stated. Between 2017 and 2040, the IEA estimates that more solar power capacity will be added globally each year than any other source of energy, with an annual average increase of almost 70 gigawatts.

Oil prices fell 2 percent on Tuesday, headed for a third straight daily decline, on forecasts for rising US crude output and a gloomier outlook for global demand growth in a report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). It expects global demand for oil to even rise in the decades ahead. The Paris-based watchdog casts doubt over the state of the sector, especially as a number of high-profile players such as Royal Dutch Shell Plc. and Total SA have reduced their exposure to Alberta.

The IEA said planned and unplanned disruptions from OPEC may be offset elsewhere, however.

Despite the cautious sentiment, traders said oil prices were unlikely to fall far, largely due to supply restrictions led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation, which have helped reduce excess stockpiles.

"Over the same period, United States gas companies ramped up their exports to Canada and Mexico, pushing net USA imports of pipeline gas down to around 25 bcm in 2016, compared with 80 bcm some ten years earlier", IEA economists said.

With the USA eating into Canada's prospective market share, the IEA believes Canada's liquefied natural gas export will likely not come to fruition until the 2030s - a decade longer than expected - even as LNG will usher in a "new global gas order".

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Overall global energy needs are seen rising more slowly than in the past, but are still projected to expand by 30 per cent between today and 2040.

Climate activists said the IEA report is too negative, but added that it highlights the need for more action to combat climate change.

A cooling Chinese economy also stoked some concerns about demand, although so far the country's refiners are processing crude oil near record levels of 11.89 million bpd.

Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.

"Canada is well placed to export oil to China, although this is dependent on the construction of additional export capacity to bring inland production to the Pacific coast", the IEA said.

After an upbeat performance last week, oil prices edged lower for a second day Tuesday.

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